The television industry is on the brink of a dramatic transformation, with the rapid pace of change keeping media investors and onlookers on their toes. This is the backdrop for CNBC's Future of TV survey, which asks media insiders and executives to forecast the next three years in TV. While the industry is no stranger to turmoil, the recent developments are particularly fascinating. The number of cable TV subscribers has been declining for over a decade, and streaming services are now profitable, but subscriber growth has plateaued. The question on everyone's mind is: what will TV look like in three years?
Personally, I think the future of TV is not about cable TV subscribers hitting a floor, but rather a dramatic decline. The cost of free, over-the-air retransmission is now over $30 per customer for something that's essentially free. However, what's already happening is that all broadcast and cable content is becoming available inside streaming apps and bundles, which will develop over time and include Netflix. Netflix is essentially a big cable programmer that could end up being bundled with other streaming apps, providing more choice, value, and utility for customers.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the potential for ubiquitous personalization. Networks will provide the right content to the right user at the right time, and content will be promoted based on a user's preferences. Additionally, content will be created and tailored to a user's preferences, which is a significant shift from the current landscape.
Another trend that will become a TV industry standard is the convergence of tech and entertainment. We're already seeing this with YouTube taking viewing share from traditional media, and Instagram doing vertical videos on TV. This convergence will continue, and consumers will become more accustomed to it.
In terms of sports viewership ratings, there's broad agreement that the biggest streaming services will likely still be the biggest in three years. However, another service that could gain significant market share is Starz. Starz is already making major advancements in language, allowing consumers to watch content in their native language without the need for subtitles or dubbing.
One thing that will become a TV industry standard that doesn't exist today is frictionless commerce. We'll see more product placement and the opportunity for customers to deep link directly to a partner site to make a purchase. This will change the way we think about advertising and commerce on TV.
From my perspective, the future of TV is about personalization, convergence, and frictionless commerce. The industry is evolving rapidly, and those who can adapt to these changes will be the ones who succeed. It's an exciting time for the TV industry, and I can't wait to see what the next three years bring.
